by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2025 11:28:00 AM
Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On November 14, 2025, LBR was at $560.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 7.7% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.
There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017. There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.
