Colorado State University Research Scientist Levi Silvers talks to FOX Weather Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen about the latest hurricane season forecast. The experts at CSU maintained their predictions for this season.
MIAMI – The 2025 tropical cyclone season is off to a slow start in most basins across the Northern Hemisphere – except for one – which could offer insight into what lies ahead for the Atlantic.
While the Atlantic, western Pacific and northern Indian Ocean have seen minimal activity so far, the eastern Pacific has taken the cake, already producing five named storms with more possibly in the coming weeks.
Since reliable hurricane season records began in the late 1960s, there have been fewer than two dozen years in which the eastern Pacific produced three or more named storms before the Atlantic recorded its first.
In those rare seasons where the eastern Pacific recorded five or more storms before the Atlantic’s first cyclone, the Atlantic basin has never gone on to outdo its Pacific counterpart.
A look at the 2025 hurricane season in the eastern Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
On average, when the Pacific sees a busy early season and the Atlantic is nonexistent, the Atlantic basin typically ends with just nine named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
If the Atlantic does manage to reach the 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, as forecast by Colorado State University in 2025, it would buck the trend and break historical precedent.
2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE: HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS THIS YEAR
But the eastern Pacific’s early surge in tropical cyclone activity isn’t the only statistic working against the Atlantic this season.
June 20 marks the average formation date of the first named storm in a typical Atlantic hurricane season. And with no storms on the board and none expected in the immediate future, the basin is falling behind not just average standards, but also benchmarks that would lead to the level of activity expected by CSU and NOAA in 2025.
Forecasters expect the 2025 season to be above average, which would mean the presence of frequent cyclones during the 183-day season, not long stretches of calm and inactivity.
Tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic
(FOX Weather)
No signs that inactivity will change any time soon
Forecast models, oscillation patterns and other indicators show minimal potential for tropical development in the Atlantic basin for at least the next two weeks – meaning Andrea and Barry are not likely to be tracked anytime soon.
If June ends without a named storm, 2025 will be on track to rank among the top 30 slowest starts to a season in recorded history.
Historically, slow-starting seasons average just nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The most active of those was in 1950, which produced 16 named storms, 11 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, but that year is widely considered an outlier.
The quietest season on record remains 1914, which featured just one named storm – though that number may be an undercount due to the lack of satellite technology and observational tools to detect systems across the vast ocean.
The last modern example of a late-frequency season was 2004, when the first cyclone didn’t form until late July. The year went on to produce 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes – many of which impacted Florida.
Atlantic basin satellite on 6/19/2025
(FOX Weather)
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It’s important to note that a slow or below-average season doesn’t eliminate the threat of major impacts.
The 2022 season, while not notably active, produced Hurricane Ian, which struck southwest Florida as a Category 4 cyclone.
Similarly, 1992’s Hurricane Andrew occurred during an overall quiet season, but the disaster remains one of the most catastrophic events in U.S. history.
As tropical forecasters often remind the public, it only takes one to cause a lifetime of problems and hardships.
