The National Hurricane Center is now only watching two areas for potential development in the Atlantic Ocean but both are far away from land.
MIAMI – Despite some tropical activity percolating in the Atlantic basin, it looks like we’ll get through the second week of August without any major concerns.
But the third week of August may be a different story, as forecasters are eyeing a series of disturbances that may have aspirations to eventually become more significant storms.
Right now, forecasters are tracking a broad and disorganized tropical disturbance dubbed Invest 96L that is currently drifting west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
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(FOX Weather)
While the system remains poorly organized, gradual development remains possible as it begins turning northward next week. In its way sits a layer of dry, dusty Saharan Desert air that will work to eat away at the system’s moisture and subsequently, keep its power in check.
Invest 96L Forecast Tracks
Still, the National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next several days. Any development will likely be slow and limited as the system remains over open water.
And even if the storm manages to gather some strength, steering currents are expected to pull 96L to the north farther into the open Atlantic. Thus, the system poses no immediate threat to land, though it will be monitored closely through the weekend.
Additional disturbances coming off Africa show signs of tropical trouble
While 96L’s fate seems to feature a harmless northern jaunt through the Atlantic, another tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa in the coming days is leaning toward a more southerly track across the ocean.
Another tropical wave set to emerge off Africa.
While long-range forecast guidance currently indicates only limited development of this system as it moves west across the Atlantic, a southerly track would keep the system in more favorable conditions for development and find steering conditions more conducive to eventually reaching the Caribbean and/or the U.S.
“On the current schedule, this new disturbance would reach the vicinity of the Caribbean islands late next week or over that weekend,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “Whether it will have shifted to the north by that time is unknowable. The sledding is on the rough side across the Tropical Atlantic. Dust and dry air look likely to impact the system on its trip west.”
The NHC has given the disturbance a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next week.
(FOX Weather)
The western Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and waters off the southeast U.S. continues to harbor the basin’s warmest ocean temperatures, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Any systems that manage to reach those warmer pools of water would have a higher ceiling for intensification.
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“As the system is approaching the vicinity of the (Caribbean) islands, the atmospheric pattern is forecast to become more conducive to the system strengthening,” Norcross said. “Since a system’s intensity and track are often related – a stronger system is normally more likely to turn north – we’ll have to see how quickly this one organizes as it moves west. The more organized it gets, the better the forecasts are likely to be.”
But Norcross warned that despite rampant social media speculation showing some forecasts 12-14 days out indicating a potential major storm near the US, there is no forecast skill in predicting storms that far out.
“Despite what you might see posted on social media, there is nothing more to know,” Norcross said. “All long-range forecasts for a system that has not even begun to develop are subject to large errors and are likely to change many times. Posts showing landfall in the United States are not worth your attention and are only there to cause angst.”
NOAA August Hurricane Season Forecast
But the end of August looks to keep forecasters busy. Norcross says two or three other disturbances are forecast to move off Africa behind this one.
“They will all bear watching, of course,” he said. “There is nothing more to say at this point.”
