Facing Russia, Ukraine is funding deterrence on a NATO scale — without being integrated into NATO. Europe must recognize Ukraine as indispensable to its own future and act accordingly.
An opinion by Maria RepkoDeputy Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy
A budget is never just a list of numbers. It is a political statement, a map of priorities, and a signal to allies. Ukraine’s recently presented 2026 draft budget is all of that at once. It reflects the country’s priorities — already pushed to their limits — but it also exposes the EU’s hesitation to shape the course of the war. For the third consecutive year (2024–2026), this is a survival budget, nearly identical to that of 2023: sufficient to slow Russia’s advance to about 10–20 km² per day, but insufficient to enable a decisive Ukrainian breakthrough.
This “survival budget” is not a sign of timidity or a lack of reform, but of physics. Defense spending consumes virtually all central revenues generated from domestic sources — roughly a quarter of GDP (€51 billion, according to CES estimates) — which, after recent amendments to the budget law, is actually lower than this year’s level. The figures are likely to be revised upward during the year, as happened in 2024 and again this year, but for now, the outlook is bleak.
The 2026 budget foresees €58 billion in revenue and leaves a €42 billion deficit to be filled through international aid. It is a survival plan — already outdated when first introduced in 2023 — and incapable of supporting a decisive counteroffensive. The responsibility does not lie with Ukraine, which has long reached its internal limits, but with Europe, which must finally decide how to mobilize Russian assets and fund the defense effort at a level that makes a lasting peace possible. With the current means, that goal remains unattainable.
Source: LaLibre.
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