The White House receives embargoed BLS (and other) releases before the official release at 8:30am. If memory serves (and is still relevant), this is late afternoon the day before. So (if as before), Trump starts posting to get people to ignore the numbers, be prepared for a disappointing release.
Current consensus is +66K for NFP, +70K for private NFP (Bloomberg).
Figure 1: Reported nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), Bloomberg consensus of 2/10 (light blue square), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), early benchmark (red), CPS household employment series adjusted to NFP concept (teal). Goldman Sachs implied (purple), all in 000’s, s.a. Preliminary benchmark data to March 2025, reported changes thereafter. Early benchmark data to June 2025, reported changes thereafter. Goldman Sachs uses midpoint of estimated final benchmark, midpoint of downward adjustment due to revised birth-death model (825, 40, respectively). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachsand author’s calculations.
The GS downward adjustment to monthly changes post-March is set at 40K (midpoint 30-60, at least that’s my reading), which is smaller than the Powell conjecture of 60K.
Update, 7:40pm CT:
Last month, Trump posted numbers early, at 8:20pm ET, as discussed by Bloomberg.
