by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2025 09:54:00 AM
Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)
1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.4%
The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September.
The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 – and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!
2) Low unemployment claims.
This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP has Fallen Significantly
This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.
Mortgage debt, as a percent of GDP is at 44.6% – down from Q1 – and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.
4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate is Low
This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2025, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.
Although mortgage delinquencies are up a little from Q2 2023 – the lowest level since the MBA survey started in 1979 – delinquencies are still historically very low.
Note: The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent but not reported to the credit bureaus).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process are low.
5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels (ex-pandemic)
This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).
The Household debt service ratio was at 11.3% in Q2 2025, slightly below the pre-pandemic level of 11.6%.
Happy
This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.
Happy Thanksgiving to All!
