“What’s Up With the Economy?” is a podcast by the Centre for Economic Strategy in cooperation with Hromadske Radio, supported by PrivatBank.
Every week, hosts Anhelina Zavadetska and Maksym Samoiliuk talk with experts, entrepreneurs, analysts, and government officials about what is happening with Ukraine’s economy.
While the podcast is held in Ukrainian, we decided to summarise each issue with the most important insights.
Despite the ongoing war, harvest 2025 shows that Ukrainian agricultural sector remains stable. According to Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Taras Vysotskyi, this year’s grain harvest will reach 59 million tons, which is 3–5% more than in 2024. Wheat yields amount to around 22 million tons; corn is expected to reach 30 million, and the sunflower harvest remains at last year’s level.
“Taking wheat as an example: domestic consumption is 6 million tons. (…) This year, approximately 22, possibly 22.5 million tons were harvested. (…) We have 6 million tons of domestic consumption, and we can safely export 16–17 million tons in this range. We can see that there is a surplus. (…) Therefore, this is a normal figure, taking into account all the circumstances of the war,” says Vysotskyi.
At the same time, prices for vegetables and potatoes have dropped, marking 2025 as a year of deflation for the so-called “borshch set.” For consumers, this is good news, even if producers earned less.
How Did the EU Respond to the “Soy Amendments”?
The temporary export duties on soybeans and rapeseed, known as the “soy amendments”, have been explained by the government as a way to retain processing within the country. The move has raised concerns among exporters, but according to Vysotskyi, the EU’s reaction has been measured.
“The mere fact that we are under martial law constitutes a force majeure, giving us the right to apply certain short-term exemptions. It’s important to distinguish between third countries and EU member states, (…) and we have communicated and justified this. One reason behind these measures is the decline in the production of value-added goods. This matters to us because it directly affects taxes, the budget, and the army. We need to ensure that as much money as possible remains in the country. We also see that EU member states can make use of exemptions. For example, there are still unilateral restrictions imposed by neighboring countries — Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary — on Ukrainian agricultural products, which are not provided for by EU legislation,” Vysotskyi explained.
New Conditions of the EU Trade “Visa-Free” Regime: What They Mean for Farmers
After two years of full “trade visa-free” access, Ukraine and the European Union have agreed on an updated free trade arrangement. The new deal is open-ended but introduces quotas for certain products.
According to Taras Vysotskyi, this is a compromise decision. On the one hand, Ukraine has gained stable, permanent access to the EU market. On the other hand, the agreement reintroduces limitations for specific categories, most notably sugar and bioethanol, while increasing quotas for most other products, from honey to poultry.
These changes mean that part of Ukraine’s export potential will be lost, but the indefinite nature of the agreement provides businesses with predictability and confidence in their access to the European market.
Where Does Ukraine Export Most of Its Agricultural Products?
Ukraine continues to diversify the geography of its agricultural exports. The European Union remains the country’s main trading partner, accounting for more than half of all Ukrainian agri-food exports each year. Other key destinations include North Africa, the Middle East (particularly Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia), and Southeast Asia.
At the same time, Ukrainian products are gaining ground in Sub-Saharan Africa, where sugar and certain processed goods are already being supplied. The Ministry of Economy views this region as a promising direction for further export growth.
Ukraine’s agricultural sector is increasingly seen not as a competitor but as a complement to the European market. The country can replace part of the EU’s imports from more distant regions, such as Latin America, by providing high-quality and geographically closer products.
Why Did Export Volumes Drop Sharply Since June 2025?
Following the expiration of the “trade visa-free” regime, Ukraine’s agricultural export volumes have indeed declined. Several factors contributed to this: a late harvest, regulatory uncertainty, and new EU quotas limiting supplies of certain products. The sharpest impact was felt by exporters of sugar, bioethanol, and soybeans, which had previously been actively supplied to Europe.
“The end of the visa-free regime has an impact. It’s simple math: potentially 400,000 tons of sugar could have been exported, but now won’t be. Even at $400 per ton, that’s $160 million. (…) But in fact, the overall effect could have been worse if we hadn’t reached any agreement at all and had simply reverted to the 2021 conditions,” explained Taras Vysotskyi.
According to him, the current arrangements with the EU are a compromise that helped prevent a dramatic collapse in exports. The government is now working to diversify export destinations, primarily toward North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, which are gradually becoming new markets for Ukrainian agricultural products.
“What’s Up With the Economy?” is a podcast by the Centre for Economic Strategy in cooperation with Hromadske Radio, supported by PrivatBank.
The podcast is available in Ukrainian on different platforms by the link.
