Ahead of a possible presidential campaign in 2028, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has searched for crossover support from people who listen to conservative podcasts.
The most recent podcast Newsom joined, on July 14, was Shawn Ryan’s. In one exchange, Newsom touted California’s importance in the national economy.
“California provides $83.1 billion more than we receive from the federal government,” Newsom said in a July 14 X post highlighting the interview. “Texas? Receives $71.1 billion more than they provide to the federal government. 71% of the U.S. GDP comes from blue counties.”’
Newsom’s statistics on the balance of payments to the federal government are largely accurate. But his figure for gross domestic product created in blue counties — those who voted Democratic for president — is outdated.
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Newsom’s office did not provide evidence supporting his claim.
Comparing California, Texas on their federal balance of payments
Newsom’s figure on the balance of payments matches data from the Rockefeller Institute of Governmentan Albany, New York-based, nonpartisan think tank. The group looked at what the residents of each state paid to the federal government in taxes, compared with what the state and its residents received in federal aid — everything from infrastructure costs to safety net payments such as Medicaid and food stamps.
The institute found that in 2022 — the most recent data available — California’s total payments to the federal government exceeded its distributions from the federal government by $83.1 billion, while Texas’ incoming federal money exceeded its payments to the federal government by $71.1 billion. That’s in line with what Newsom said.
That figure includes coronavirus-related spending. The institute also provided the figures without coronavirus spending; the numbers were different, but they showed the same general pattern. Using the noncoronavirus figures, California sent $126.5 billion more to the federal government than it received, while Texas received $44.6 billion more from the federal government than it sent.
California and Texas are both huge states with prosperous business sectors and large numbers of lower-income residents. So why are their balances of payments with the federal government so different? Joel Tirado, communications director for the Rockefeller Institute, said the main difference comes from taxes paid.
“Californians generally contribute more in individual and corporate income taxes,” Tirado said. “This reflects high per capita incomes in many parts of California, as well as California’s large corporate tax base. And since California has about 30 percent more residents than Texas does, those differences get magnified.”
Blue counties vs. red counties in gross domestic product
On the question of gross domestic product for blue states, Newsom cited a figure that was valid for 2020, but not for 2024.
This statistic comes from calculations by the Brookings Institutiona nonpartisan think tank.
In 2020Joe Biden won counties that collectively produced 71% of the nation’s GDP — a broad measure of economic activity — while President Donald Trump won counties that accounted for 29% of GDP.
Four years later, when Trump defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris, the gap was narrower. Harris won counties representing 62% of the nation’s GDP, while Trump won counties representing 38% of GDP.
Trump’s increased percentage came in part from winning several large, economically vibrant counties that Biden won in 2020, including Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami), Tarrant County, Texas (Fort Worth), Duval County, Florida (Jacksonville) and Pinellas County, Florida (St. Petersburg).
Our ruling
Newsom said, “California provides $83.1 billion more than we receive from the federal government. Texas? Receives $71.1 billion more than they provide to the federal government. 71% of the U.S. GDP comes from blue counties.”
On the balance of payments to the federal government, Newsom is correct for both states when coronavirus-related spending is included, and using 2022 data, which is the most recent available. The gap between the two states is similar if coronavirus spending is excluded.
On the share of national GDP from blue counties, Newsom’s data is outdated. The 71% figure is correct for 2020, but it shrank to 62% for 2024 as Trump flipped several populous and economically potent counties.
We rate the statement Mostly True.
