Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. The special topic of the September review is: «Has the Ukrainian economy reached its limits?».
All previous reviews can be found under the link.
Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in September:
- Monetary sector: Inflation fell to 13.2%, key policy rate remains steady at 15.5%. The key policy rate remains unchanged in the face of pro-inflationary risks and high inflation expectations. The tight monetary policy keeps hryvnia deposits attractive, decreasing dollarisation rates.
- Foreign trade: Ukrainian exports continue to stagnate, while imports show double-digit growth. The trend of increasing trade deficit persists. A large share of import statistics is classified under the category “99”, most likely concealing the imports of war-related goods. The imports of electric cars have increased fivefold since the start of the full-scale invasion. The imports of energy security items has surged in need for adaptation.
- Fiscal sector: The state budget received UAH 188 bn of taxes, adding 26% y-o-y. Seasonal growth in CPT payments boosted August revenues. War expenditures via own sources further decreased in July while defence aid also showed declining trend. Government presents fourth wartime plan – Budget 2026. All own revenues of the budget will be spent on war.
- Sectoral analysis: The winter crop harvest has already finished with positive results, and the summer crop harvest is expected to exceed last year’s level. Ukraine has set a new record for net electricity exports in August. Although consumer confidence improved in August, business confidence remained subdued.
- Special topic: According to forecasts, GDP growth will not exceed 3% in 2025–26 amid the ongoing war. Businesses are operating at almost full capacity and are under significant pressure due to labour shortages. Private sector investment is limited during the war but is critically needed to increase productivity in a rigid labour market.
Speakers:
- Ufuk Akcigitthe Arnold C. Harberger Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, Director at Global Center for Economic Growth;
- Natalia HorshkovaHead of Department for Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine;
- Krylo kryvolapExecutive Director at Centre for Economic Recovery;
- Darina MarchakDeputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine;
- Sergiy NikolaychukFirst Deputy Governor, National Bank of Ukraine.
Moderator: Hlib VyshlinskyExecutive Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy.
