Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. The special topic of the September review is: «Has the Ukrainian economy reached its limits?».
All previous reviews can be found under the link.
Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in September:
- Monetary sector: Inflation fell to 11.9%, driven disinflationary trend. Food inflation and vegetables in particular decreases due to high harvests. The credit growth is strong and continues to grow after the post-invasion slump.
- Sectoral analysis: Real GDP grew by just 0.7% y-o-y in Q2 2025, due to delays in harvesting and a fall in government consumption. However, the economy was supported by steady consumer demand and improved exports. The energy situation deteriorated in October due to renewed Russian shelling, which is expected to restrain economic growth in the coming months. The EU Council has agreed to reduce or eliminate customs duties on various Ukrainian agri-food products.
- Fiscal sector: In September 2025, state budget revenues reached UAH 147 billion, up 25% y-o-y, with every third hryvnia coming from import VAT. Income and profit taxes grew strongly, while total revenues fell 22% m-o-m due to seasonal PIT fluctuations. In August, expenditures rose 28% m-o-m to UAH 462.5 billion, driven by a 49% increase in war spending — the highest in 2025. The budget deficit for January–August reached UAH 822 billion, largely financed by foreign borrowing.
- Special topic: Will the European Union dare to give the Russian frozen assets to Ukraine? There is a total of €289.5 bn of Russian frozen assets. €209.2 bn are in the European Union, €180 bn of which are in Belgium. Under the proposed Ukraine Reparation Loan, the EU would borrow this cash associated with Russia’s assets and lend €140 bn to Ukraine interest-free. The EU scheme can cover 2-3 years of the war expenditures for Ukraine. But is it the best option to fund the war?
See our report below for further details.
Panelists:
- Iana OkhrimenkoSenior Economist at CES.
- Vladyslav RashkovanAlternate Executive Director for Ukraine at the International Monetary Fund.
- Tinatin TsertsvadzeAdvocacy Advisor at the Open Society Foundations.
- Mykola YurlovCounsellor, Department of International Law, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
Moderator: Maria RepkoDeputy Director of CES.
This event has been funded by UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
