Is President Donald Trump more popular than ever? He says so.
“I have just gotten the highest poll numbers of my ‘political career,’” he said in a Nov. 22 Truth Social post.
Trump’s assertion is inaccurate: Publicly available polling data shows his approval rating at or near its all-time low, not its all-time high.
The White House did not respond to an inquiry for this article.
Poll aggregators all show Trump at a weak point
Polling analysts say the best way to get a snapshot of survey results is to look at aggregations — collections of publicly released polls that average the most recent. A single poll might be an outlier, but averages of all polls decrease the influence of outlier polls.
Aggregators’ methods differ, but generally they give the greatest weight to the most recent polls. Many also give greater weight to polls with more accurate track records, and some exclude polls that do not provide sufficient transparency about their methodology.
There are eight commonly used aggregators: Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin; FiftyPlusOne; Decision Desk HQ; RealClearPolitics, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter; The New York Times; Votehub; and RacetotheWH.
Every one of these poll aggregators show Trump’s approval rating has tumbled since the beginning of his second term in January, mirrored by a steady rise in his disapproval rating.
Each of the poll aggregators show Trump’s approval rating in positive territory in January, flipping to even approval-disapproval ratings sometime in March. Since then, his disapproval ratings have exceeded approvals by generally increasing amounts.
Decision Desk HQ (screenshot reprinted with permission)
Among the seven aggregators publishing since January, Trump’s January approval averaged 54.2% and disapproval 40.8%. By Nov. 24, that flipped. Among the seven aggregators, Trump’s average approval is currently 41.5% and his average disapproval is 56%.
“The high point of his polling was at the beginning of his second term,” Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ, told PolitiFact.
Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings are currently broadly similar to this point in his first term. In late November 2017, his ratings in the RealClearPolitics aggregation — the only one with public data from both of Trump’s terms — were 39.2% approve and 56.2% disapprove. Today, they are 42.7% approve and 55.9% disapprove.
Trump’s approval ratings are also close to the worst point of his first term, which came in mid-December 2017. Back then, according to RealClearPolitics’ average, Trump had 37.2% approval and 58% disapproval.
Trump’s polling on specific issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration and trade mirror declines in his overall approval ratings, according to Silver Bulletin.
Just because Trump’s polling is at a low point today doesn’t mean it can’t rebound, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“Trump has often shown an ability to bounce back from poor approval polling, like water finding its level,” Kondik said. “So don’t be surprised if he rebounds again — not to positive approval, but perhaps to more like 45% instead of 40%.”
Our ruling
Trump wrote, “I have just gotten the highest poll numbers of my ‘political career.’”
The opposite is true: Eight poll aggregators show Trump had his strongest approval ratings, and his smallest disapproval ratings, in January, at the beginning of his second term. Since then, his approval ratings — both overall and for specific issue areas — have gone consistently downhill.
Trump’s current approval and disapproval ratings are the worst of his second term and within a few percentage points of his weakest first-term showing.
The statement is inaccurate, so we rate it False.
