FOX Weather’s Robert Ray reports live from Kingston where the island is preparing for an onslaught of 15-25 inches of rain, days of damaging winds and 5-10 feet of storm surge as Melissa drifts toward the island.
KINGSTON, Jamaica – What was already a dangerous and deadly Tropical Storm Melissa is now on the cusp of becoming a hurricane Saturday, and forecasts have become even more dire for potentially catastrophic impacts across Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and even Cuba as the storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a monster Category 4 storm.
Melissa has already claimed three lives in the Dominican Republic earlier this week as the powerful storm stalled in the Caribbean, lashing the island with multiple inches of rain. Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency confirmed a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, left two people dead on Thursday, and a falling tree killed a man in his 70s in Marigot during flooding on Wednesday.
But Melissa has now turned its eyes toward Jamaica, where the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center now present a potentially worst-case scenario of a storm rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane before slamming into the southern coast of the island at near snail’s pace, unleashing days of torrential rains, damaging wind gusts, and potentially deadly flash flooding and storm surge.
BRYAN NORCROSS: CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM MELISSA
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Hurricane Warnings now cover Jamaica, while Hurricane Watches cover the southwestern parts of Haiti. The storm remains just inching along at 1 mph and is expected to drift west through the weekend, then turn north toward Jamaica on Monday and Monday night.
“Unfortunately, a large majority of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours,” the NHC said Saturday, which would put landfall sometime on Tuesday. “What’s most concerning here is that the island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds before the core–and strongest winds–even reach the coast.”
WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN A HURRICANE UNDERGOES ‘RAPID INTENSIFICATION’?
Forecast models indicate Melissa may rapidly intensify and gain over 60 mph in strength in just two days. Current projections have the storm with peak winds around 155 mph around the time it reaches the Jamaican coast, putting the storm on the cusp of Category 5 strength.
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FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said that this could be a historically devastating storm for Jamaica as the forecast remains for Melissa to eventually strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane in the central Caribbean.
“It’s increasingly likely that Jamaica will experience long-duration impacts from likely Hurricane Melissa like no storm they’ve encountered in modern times,” warned Norcross. “South of Jamaica, the Caribbean water is extraordinarily warm, and the atmospheric pattern is forecast to be conducive to dramatic, rapid strengthening of the system. The current consensus track shows an extreme threat to the Kingston metropolitan area from flooding rain, wind, and storm surge.”
Jamaica is bracing for potential impacts from Melissa as the storm trudges through the Caribbean. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down what those impacts could be and the science behind Melissa’s development.
The Jamaican government said that it activated the country’s emergency operation center and emergency generators, medical supplies and fuel are in place ahead of the storm.
“We have over 50 generators ready to go and to be deployed so that within 72 hours of a storm, 80% of NWC customers will be able to get back portable water,” Matthew Samuda, Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, said during a Friday press conference. “This is a marked difference from the last time around.”
Officials said they would likely close the country’s airports once Melissa started getting dangerously close to the island.
Kingston Harbor opens to the south, and the airport is on a peninsula in the harbor. “Storm surge up to 10 feet above normal high tide is forecast for somewhere on the southern coast of Jamaica east of where the center comes ashore,” Norcross said. “If that occurs in Kingston or just west of the city, there will be widespread damage to critical infrastructure.”
The Jamaica Met Service noted that soils are saturated from prior rain events, which could lead to mudslides as heavy rain from Melissa moves over the area.
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray is in Kingston as the island prepares for the storm, but worries the calm weather and seas Saturday morning may be giving a false sense of security.
“There is some nervousness going on, but people are trying to begin their Saturday as if nothing is happening,” Ray said while standing on the Caribbean’s shores in Kingston as residents fished behind him. “That’s a bit of a problem, because I’m just not 100% clear that the folks here… fully understand what is going on it the Caribbean Sea.”
What are the expected impacts from Hurricane Melissa?
Latest forecasts have Melissa making landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday, unleashing 15-25+ inches of rain for catastrophic flooding and storm surge.
Melissa is currently about 135 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, the NHC says. A hurricane needs 74 mph or greater.
Forecasts are warning of catastrophic flooding as the storm batters the island with heavy rain for days. The NHC predicts widespread rainfall totals of 15-25 inches across Jamaica just through landfall Tuesday, with 35 inches possible in parts of Haiti.
But the NHC warns those rainfall totals are incomplete, with even more rain likely beyond Tuesday, but the uncertainty around Melissa’s track and speed beyond then preclude confidence in storm total predictions.
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“Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti,” the NHC said.
And of course, the potential for destructive winds.
“Don’t make foolish decisions,” urged Jamaica’s Minister of Telecommunications & Transportation, Hon. Daryl Vaz. “Don’t make stupid decisions like coming out in the middle of the storm to see what’s happening. Please. I’m making a special appeal because we are in a very, very serious time over the next few days, and we need all Jamaica to bond together.”
Cuba may see 4–8 inches with some spots reaching 12 inches as Melissa takes aim there later in the week.
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In addition, Melissa’s massive wind field and slow crawl toward Jamaica will trigger a powerful storm surge starting as soon as Saturday night, but peaking along and to the east of where Melissa nears and makes landfall. Water heights forecasts have increased on Saturday, and are now expected to reach 7-11 feet above ground level during the peak of the storm, topped by large and destructive waves.
And wind speeds could reach well over 100 mph in areas near where Melissa comes ashore. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by Saturday night, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by Sunday or Monday.
After blasting through Jamaica, Melissa is expected to pick up forward speed and make another landfall – potentially still as a major hurricane – along the eastern coast of Cuba on Wednesday morning. Melissa may also bring impacts to Turks and Caicos before sweeping across the eastern Bahamas later on Wednesday on its way out into the open Atlantic.
