Browsing: Economy

EPU, VIX and GPR: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), VIX…

Hungary – Centre for Economic Strategy €2.6 bn HU is a net exporter of goods with a surplus of €2.6…

Today marks the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith‘s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the…

Using NYMEX futures for May, June: Figure 1: Net Oil Price (Brent), defined relative to previous year (blue), defined relative…

Belgium – Centre for Economic Strategy Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), an independent Ukrainian think tank that analyzes key public…

0:37Intro. [Recording date: January 28, 2026.]Russ Roberts: Today is January 28th, 2026, and my guest is philosopher and author, Hanno…

Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration. It was only 23% on February…

From GasBuddy at 10:45am CT: Kalshi puts end-March price at $4.00, down from $4.10.

From Friday’s breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS): Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), DKW expected inflation (tan), both in %.…

Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction…