Browsing: Economy

Inflation began rising in 2021 due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and reopening dynamics. The Russia-Ukraine war that started in…

Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran…

“What’s up with the economy?” is a weekly podcast by the Centre for Economic Strategy in collaboration with Hromadske Radio…

0:37Intro. [Recording date: January 4, 2026.]Russ Roberts: Today is January 4th, 2026, and my guest today is Michael Munger. This…

Goldman Sachs tracking ticks higher core PCE inflation for February. The Cleveland Fed’s core nowcast imply lower instantaneous inflation for…

2025Q4 2nd release, GDPNow, and Survey of Professional Forecasters: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (3/13) (light blue square), March…

From Kalshi: My conjecture: As long as the probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening goes down, the betting odds of…

Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP)…

Smith begins An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations with the following claim: “The greatest…

From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment. My remarks based on observation on betting. For SOFR:…