by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6%
after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 1, down from 3.9 percent on September 26. After this morning’s release from the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent was partially offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. The US Census Bureau construction spending report was not released this morning because of the government shutdown. We plan on maintaining the release schedule throughout the shutdown but will skip updates if there are no monthly data releases since the last GDPNow update. [October 1st estimate]
