by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2025 02:25:00 PM
From J.D. Power: November New-Vehicle Retail Sales Decline 4.8% as Effects of EV Pull-Ahead Persist Brief excerpt:
Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. November 2025 has 25 selling days, one fewer than November 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million unitsdown 1.2 million units from November 2024.
…
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:“November’s results reflect another notable—yet anticipated—decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on Sept. 30. That expiration prompted many shoppers to accelerate buying decisions, resulting in a surge in EV sales that temporarily inflated the overall industry sales pace. Now, two months after the credit expired, the industry continues to feel the effect of those accelerated purchases. In November, EVs are expected to account for just 6.0% of new-vehicle retail sales, consistent with October but well below the 12.9% recorded in September.
emphasis added
From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales Declining Again in November; Falling Inventory Lowers Chance for a December Rebound
Tighter inventory, tanking deliveries of battery-electric vehicles, and an overall rise in prices for what is available are capping demand, with expectations the October-November slowdown continues in December.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power’s forecast for November(Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 154 million SAAR would be up slightly from last month, and down 7.6% from a year ago.
All of Q4 will likely be difficult for vehicle sales.
