by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2025 08:21:00 AM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
In October 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were down a
fraction (-0.03%) from October 2024, and 11 of the
20 major rail carload categories posted year-over-
year declines. …U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.0% in October 2025 from October 2024—the third year-over-year decline
in the past five months for intermodal and the steepest percentage drop since August 2023. Historically,
October is one of the strongest months for intermodal traffic: in the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, it was among the top three months for average weekly intermodal
volume in 20 of those years. It won’t be this year:
October’s weekly average of 273,747 units has already
been surpassed by four other months.
emphasis added
The AAR Freight Rail Index
(FRI) measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month
rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal
and grain. As such, it is a useful gauge of underlying
freight demand tied to industrial production and
consumer goods flows. The index fell 1.4% in October
2025 from September 2025, its sixth decline in the
past seven months. The index is 1.5% below its level
from a year earlier.
