A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:
Figure 1: Sum of nonresidential equipment and structures investment, bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), and EPU (news). Q2 investment is GDPNow of 7/3. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates. Source: BEA, policyuncertainty.com, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Sum of nonresidential equipment and structures investment, bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), and EPU (legacy three component version). Q2 investment is GDPNow of 7/3. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates. Source: BEA, policyuncertainty.com, NBER, and author’s calculations.
I doubt that policy uncertainty will decline to pre-Trump 2.0 levels, given (in my opinion) Mr. Trump’s ongoing cognitive decline and inability to restrain his impulsiveness.
