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The National Hurricane Center is painting a broad area to watch stretching across the northern Florida Peninsula. A cold front is forecast to stall near the Florida/Georgia line about Friday, which could plant the seed for a tropical system to develop over the warm ocean or Gulf.
The various computer forecast models, including the new AI models, generally show the development of a low-pressure system, but there is no consensus on where it might develop. We’ll see how the details develop this week, but a messy, wet, slow-moving system over or near Florida is possible.
This graphic shows an area to watch off the Southeast coast this week.
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There is no indication at this point that it would be very strong, but we’ll be vigilant. Even if it doesn’t develop, the system will likely bring periods of heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula – bad news for the holiday weekend, but good news for the drought.
Speaking of messy, Tropical Storm Barry formed yesterday out of the depression in the southwestern Gulf. It has moved inland into Mexico. The circulation is dying out, but heavy rain continues. South Texas will feel the fringe effects for the next couple of days.
This graphic shows the forecast track for Tropical Storm Flossie.
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Tropical Storm Flossie is tracking north offshore of Mexico’s Pacific coast – the latest in the record-breaking string of storms that have formed in that area this season. Flossie is forecast to reach hurricane strength by tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the western Mexican coast around Manzanillo. It’s forecast to track offshore, but residents should stay informed in case the storm grows in size or veers closer to land than is currently forecast.
This parade of storms has developed in the Pacific because strong high pressure has dominated the Atlantic since April. The storm track has been depressed to the south, and African disturbances have been shuttled west across Central America into the Pacific. Yet another storm is in the pipeline after Flossie.
The high pressure let up just briefly last week, which allowed a disturbance to turn north early and become Tropical Storm Barry in the deep southwestern Gulf. But now the block is back, so no more development from that quarter is expected for the foreseeable future.
