Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down what the models are showing with Invest 94L, which could become Tropical Storm Imelda in the coming days. Norcross said the Southeast should continue to monitor this system with increasing chances of impacts along the coast.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance near the island of Hispaniola, which could develop into the season’s next named storm to track in the Atlantic, though its precise track remains uncertain.
During a FOX Weather live stream on Thursday, Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross and FOX 13 Chief Meteorologist Paul Dellegatto discussed the latest computer model guidance and possible impacts, from the Sunshine State through the Carolinas.
Norcross stressed that Miami is not expected to take a direct hit but warned that conditions could still become inconvenient over the weekend and early next week.
“This might very well be a bring-the-furniture-off-the-balconies event,” Norcross stated.
For those further north in the Carolinas, a more impactful storm remains a possibility, but who will see the worst of the flooding and damaging winds remains up in the air.
Tracking the tropics: 94L possibilities.
(FOX Weather)
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Computer models remain split on the system’s future and are subject to change run by run.
Dellegatto said meteorologists are in a stage where every new model run is carefully examined and scrutinized.
Two distinct scenarios have the highest possibilities: the cyclone bending out harmlessly into the Atlantic Ocean or making landfall somewhere along the Georgia or Carolina coasts.
“There is a reasonable chance that something bad is going to happen here early next week, Monday into Tuesday,” Norcross stated.
Impacts include storm surge, heavy rain, and the risk of tornadoes inland if the system makes landfall.
The strength and size of the storm, along with the angle at which it approaches the coast, will determine surge risk for vulnerable areas.
Forecast models for Invest 94L
(FOX Weather)
According to the FOX Weather team, eastern North Carolina would be most vulnerable to storm surge and wind, while western parts of the state could face flooding rains if tropical moisture is funneled into the mountains.
The National Hurricane Center has not yet issued a forecast cone for Invest 94L, but that could come as soon as the system becomes a tropical depression or is classified as a “Potential Tropical Cyclone.”
Norcross said a NOAA plane equipped with Doppler radar departed from Lakeland, Florida, Thursday evening to sample the environment around the disturbance.
Data from the mission will be fed directly into computer model systems that produce forecasts.
Rainfall outlook
(FOX Weather)
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In addition to the disturbance, the Atlantic remains active with Hurricane Humberto, a storm currently with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane.
While not an immediate threat to the U.S., forecasters said Humberto could help churn up the Atlantic and produce rough seas.
