Per Kalshion 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productivity and Costs, October Employment Situation releases on their scheduled dates.
Since this coming week (of the 19th) is interview week, it’s not clear (to me at least) we ever get the October employment release (presumably all the data for the September release are sitting in some computer at BLS, safe unless somebody “accidentally” deletes it).
At a minimum, October CPI release is delayed (if it’s ever compiled — after all, somebody has to collect the data, and as far as I know, the data collectors for the CPI are not designated essential workers).
As noted here, we’ll also miss the 2025Q3 advance GDP release, as well as monthly personal income and outlays scheduled release dates. How long they’ll be delayed, who knows.
Here’s my guess on private NFP, based on ADP (using 3 month log differences, see this post):
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment, implied preliminary benchmark (black), nowcast (light blue), +/- 1 standard error interval. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
If ADP is released on November 5th, then I’ll be able to nowcast October BLS private NFP, but with a yet larger prediction interval.
As it looks like we’ll be relying on alternative data for a while, here’re two graphs from Torsten Slok’s compilation.
