ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP [updated]

ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus).

Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release (blue), Bloomberg consensus of 10/3 (light blue square), September release (tan), all in 000’s. Source: ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

in guessing October total NFP employment, I follow the methodology shown here. Assuming 100K 150K reduction in government employment due to counting of DRP participants (in August, overall government employment fell 15K; McEntarfer suggests DRP reduction is 150-200K), the BLS measure equals ADP measure of private NFP, then we get this picture:

Figure 2 [updated]: ADP Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left scale), Bloomberg consensus implied employment of 10/3 (light blue square, left scale); BLS benchmark-implied nonfarm payroll employment (black, right scale), implied NFP (chartreuse, right scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Assumes 150K decrease in reported government employment per Treasury. Source: ADP, BLS via FRED, Treasuryand author’s calculations.