Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:
Here’s the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025. On Tues, it couldn’t release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data. This morning, it couldn’t release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data. Tomorrow, it can’t release Oct 2025 #JobsReport www.bls.gov/schedule/202…November 6, 2025 at 8:26 AM
We have instead ADP. One can make inferences about employment in establishments (but not civilian employment), as I do here.
Figure 1: ADP cumulative employment since January 2024, for firms with employment less than 500 employees (teal bar), and 500 and greater employees (tan bar), s.a. Source: ADP via FRED and author’s calculations.
The level of private NFP is being sustained large firm hiring. Will this be sustained? Percentage-wise, it’s got to be alot of work being done by large firms, as employment by firms with more 500 or more employees accounts for only about 18.5% of total private employment in October.
Today, we also saw Challenger, Gray and Christmas October job cuts data come out.
From the report:
Through October, employers have announced 1,099,500 job cuts, an increase of 65% from the 664,839 announced in the first ten months of last year. … Year-to-date job cuts are at the highest level since 2020 when 2,304,755 cuts were announced through October.
In other words, the no hire-no fire labor market seems to be disappearing.
