Have the article read by OpenAI (Beta). Please note that AI translations may take some time to process.The European Commission has presented its annual enlargement report, assessing the accession process of the states aspiring to join the European Union: Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Türkiye.
Amongst the ten countries that are currently angling to join the club are some though, such as Türkiye and Georgia, that are essentially frozen in their tracks.
Leading the pack of EU hopefuls are the two Balkan countries Montenegro and Albania, while Ukraine and Moldova have made important strides after lodging their applications in 2022. Frontrunner Montenegro says it wants to complete talks by the end of 2026, while Albania is pressing to wrap them up in 2027. Ukraine and Moldova are eyeing 2028.
European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said 2026 will be a “moment of truth for all candidate countries”, stressing that a “united continent is the strongest response to those who seek to divide and destabilise Europe”.
So what are the prospects for the individual contenders, and who is setting what pace? Here is an overview:
Montenegro and Albania: the frontrunner duo
In its annual enlargement report, the European Commission highlights the rapid progress of Montenegro and Albania in their respective accession processes.
Montenegro, which started accession talks in 2012, is seen as the frontrunner among the six countries of the Western Balkan region, with negotiations potentially concluding by the end of 2026 if reforms continue. Montenegro has demonstrated “a continued political commitment” and “has produced tangible results in accomplishing required reforms and moving the country forward on its EU accession path”, according to the report.
The document however highlights that the country’s democratic institutions remain fragile and vulnerable to political crises and potential institutional blockages. According to the Commission’s assessment, Montenegro needs to improve its track record in terms of criminal prosecutions and convictions in corruption cases, particularly at a high level, as well as the overall efficiency of the judiciary, including the reduction of case backlogs.
The European Commission assessed that Montenegro is moderately prepared in the area of freedom of expression and that some progress has been made in implementing reforms. It is particularly emphasised that Montenegro needs to continue consistently implementing all media-related laws and further align them with the EU acquis – the collection of common rights and obligations that constitute the body of EU law –, thus ensuring the prompt appointment of members to the Council of the Agency for Audiovisual Media Services (AMU).
The document also highlights that Montenegro’s visa policy is not fully aligned with that of the EU and that Montenegro should terminate visa-free regime agreements with countries whose nationals require visas to enter the EU.
Albania, which has been a candidate country for EU membership since 2014, could finish by the end of 2027. The report on Albania assesses significant progress in several areas such as justice reform, the fight against organised crime and the Albanian government’s commitment to European integration.
However, the Commission stresses that the implementation of reforms and the consolidation of Albania’s democratic system remain fundamental conditions, for example in the judicial system, the fight against corruption and organised crime, as well as political polarisation and institutional dialogue.
Ukraine and Moldova: fast progress, tough reforms
The Commission’s report said Ukraine must accelerate reforms if it is to meet its self-imposed goal of completing the EU accession process by the end of 2028. The country “has continued to show remarkable resilience and strong commitment to its European path despite the escalation of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression”, it noted.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The attack breathed fresh life into long-stalled efforts to incorporate new members into the 27-nation bloc. Brussels sees swelling its numbers as a strategic priority in the face of the Kremlin’s aggression, with the EU Commission’s enlargement chief Kos saying more countries was “a realistic possibility, within the coming years”.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday to stop blocking Kiev’s bid to join the EU, as Brussels backed advancing the war-torn country to the next step despite graft concerns.
Brussels warned against “backsliding” on anti-corruption efforts after Zelenskyy was forced to reverse moves to curb the independence of agencies tackling graft amid discontent from his European backers.
On Moldova, the Commission has noted the country “has continued to face unprecedented challenges as a result of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, attempts by Russia and its proxies to destabilise the country, and threats to its energy supply and security”. It added that “despite this, Moldova has shown resilience and commitment to reforms”.
“Moldova has made the biggest one-year progress from all the candidates,” Commissioner Kos said.
In neighbouring Romania, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said it welcomes the Commission’s support for Moldova’s objective to conclude accession negotiations by early 2028.
Serbia: protests and anti-EU rhetoric bar progress
In its report, the Commission laments that Serbia’s implementation of reforms “has slowed down significantly”, due to increased polarisation in Serbian society amid the protests that have been sweeping the country for a year.
The Commission pointed to the “anti-EU narrative evident not only in Serbian media outlets but also used by political office holders, including at highest levels”, and it urged Serbian authorities to “take much more responsibility for proactive and more objective communication on Serbia’s EU accession process and the EU, and for countering disinformation and information manipulation”.
For Foreign Minister Marko Đurić and the Speaker of the National Assembly of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, however, the most important message for Serbia in the report was that Serbia is ready to open cluster 3 of the accession process (“Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth”), and that the country has advanced in a number of areas.
Brnabić agreed with the Commission’s assessment that Serbia has slowed down with reforms. “What I completely agree with – and it is indeed a criticism – is that we have slowed down with reforms. Yesterday, President [Aleksandar] Vučić also repeated that and called on all competent institutions to do everything they can to accelerate our reforms,” she said.
Answering a journalist’s question about the need to change the often negative narrative about the EU in Serbia – which was also one of the European Commission’s criticisms – Brnabić said she agreed with that. “We must make an effort to change the narrative toward the EU and to have a much more positive – or at least much less critical – narrative about the EU, without any doubt.”
The report also reviewed Kosovo, a potential EU candidate country, saying that despite “signalling its clear commitment to EU values”, it is experiencing a slowdown in the pace of reforms due to the political stalemate following last February’s elections.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: the road to stability
Despite political crises and slowed reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the Commission’s report highlights opportunities that could speed up the accession process.
It emphasises that political disagreements have negatively affected progress, resulting in delayed reforms – but tangible progress has also been recorded, notably in the alignment of legislation in the areas of data protection and border control, as well as the signing of a Status Agreement with the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex.
Despite the challenges, the Commission praised BiH for submitting the Reform Agenda, signaling its readiness for further reforms. However, the key challenge remains the implementation of judicial reform laws, which must be fully aligned with EU standards to enable continued progress in the negotiation process.
EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas said that the EU remains committed to BiH’s stability and that judicial reform, along with the appointment of a chief negotiator for proceedings with the EU, remains the key to further progress.
North Macedonia: strong alignment on foreign policy
For North Macedonia, the report said it’s important for the country to advance and finalise all the preparatory work related to the opening benchmarks for the fundamentals cluster. It was praised for maintaining good relations with other enlargement countries and for continuing its engagement in regional initiatives.
The Commission also urged the country to “adopt the relevant constitutional changes” needed to advance, for example by “including in the Constitution citizens who live within the state borders and who are part of other peoples, such as Bulgarians”.
After a meeting with his German counterpart Johann Wadephul in October, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev said Sofia and Berlin also share the view that North Macedonia should amend its constitution as a first step toward opening EU accession talks.
The Commission said the country has actively engaged with the new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans and has started to deliver on implementation of the plan’s four pillars of gradual integration with the EU single market, regional economic integration, fundamental reforms and increased financial support.
“North Macedonia maintained its full alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy, including on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, sending a strong signal of its strategic choice of EU accession and showing itself to be a reliable partner,” reads the report.
Georgia and Türkiye: the odd ones out?
While there was positive feedback for some countries in the annual review, the picture for Georgia was grim as the Caucasus nation’s government has cracked down on opponents and shifted towards Moscow. “Georgia has no viable path to the EU at this stage unless conditions change dramatically. It is now a candidate country in name only,” Commissioner Kos said.
Türkiye is also noted for further backsliding on fundamental rights and rule-of-law standards. Meanwhile, however, the country is also pushing to become part of the EU’s 150-billion-Euro Security Action for Europe (SAFE) – a mechanism aimed at strengthening European defence capabilities. Although Turkey is technically eligible to access the SAFE initiative, it requires approval from all 27 EU members – something Greece has threatened to block.
What’s next for the EU hopefuls?
Joining the EU involves years of painstaking negotiations and major reforms, and countries can be delayed by many issues along the way. Even once a candidate country clears all negotiating hurdles, joining still requires unanimous support from the EU’s existing member states.
As Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski put it: “EU membership is not an obligation but a free choice made by a country and its citizens.” Poland is among the countries emphasising that enlargement must be accompanied by rigorous adherence to democratic standards, the rule of law and strategic coherence, and that bilateral disputes should not block progress on accession.
For the first time, the Commission has now spelled out the need for future accession treaties to contain “stronger safeguards” against non-compliance with commitments made during accession negotiations to “ensure that positive dynamics on the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights are maintained”.
In the eyes of many observers, the EU has learnt a painful lesson as countries such as Hungary have stymied the bloc’s working while backtracking on the rule of law.
According to French news agency AFP, Brussels is also weighing whether it should withhold the right to veto decisions from new members in areas like foreign policy for several years after they join.
This article is an ENR Key Story. The content is based on information published by ENR participating agencies.
