There is new hope for a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel that could see all of the remaining hostages in Gaza returned and potentially lead to long-term peace. But a lot remains up in the air, and there are major gaps between both sides on key issues.
While U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism that the war could soon be over, nothing is set in stone yet and negotiators are currently in Egypt hashing out the details of a potential agreement.
Here’s a breakdown on how we got here and what we know—and don’t—about where things stand.
How We Got Here
Trump last Monday unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace plan at the White House while hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The plan calls for Hamas to release the 48 remaining hostages in Gaza, of whom 20 are still believed to be alive, in exchange for Israel releasing 250 Palestinian prisoners facing life sentences and 1,700 Gazans detained since the war began. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw its forces in Gaza to an agreed-upon line to facilitate the exchange, before eventually carrying out a phased withdrawal from the coastal enclave.
Among other steps and provisions, Trump’s plan also states that Hamas must disarm and stipulates that the group will play no role in the future governance of Gaza. The proposal envisions day-to-day services in Gaza being overseen by a transitional, technocratic committee of Palestinians. An international transitional body, chaired by Trump, would oversee this committee as well as Gaza’s redevelopment, and the United States—working with Arab and international partners—would immediately deploy a temporary International Stabilization Force in the territory.
Though Trump previously called for Gaza to be emptied out and for the United States to take over, this plan states: “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.”
Though the plan contains details that run counter to Netanyahu’s stated goals in Gaza, such as offering Hamas members amnesty if they commit to peace and lay down their arms (Netanyahu has said he wants to destroy Hamas), the Israeli prime minister last Monday announced that he accepted Trump’s plan.
The backlash that Israel faced over a strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha last month reportedly helped open a door for Trump to raise pressure on Netanyahu to accept the plan. Netanyahu was also pressured by Trump into apologizing to Qatar over the failed and controversial strike.
What We Know
After Trump warned Hamas last week that it had until this past Sunday to reach an agreement, the militant group on Friday announced that it had accepted aspects of Trump’s proposal. Hamas said it was willing to release all the remaining hostages if “the field conditions for the exchange are met.” Hamas also said it was willing to hand over administration of Gaza to a technocratic body.
Hamas has made previous offers along the same lines, and its statement was vaguely worded and didn’t address major components of Trump’s plan.
But Trump responded positively to Hamas’s statement. “Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Behind the scenes, Netanyahu was reportedly surprised by Trump’s reaction and viewed Hamas’s statement as a rejection of the 20-point plan, which reports suggest prompted frustration from the U.S. president toward his Israeli counterpart.
But in public, Israel has expressed support for moving forward with the initial phase of Trump’s plan. In a statement on Friday, Israel also said it was willing to move forward with the “first phase” of Trump’s plan for the “immediate release of all hostages.” But Israel made no firm commitments to a cease-fire.
Israel also said it would focus on defensive operations in Gaza and halt the effort to take over Gaza City. Trump on Saturday expressed appreciation that Israel had “temporarily stopped the bombing.” But Israeli strikes have reportedly continued in Gazaand dozens have been killed in the territory since Friday, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Indirect talks are now being held between Israel and Hamas in Egypt to iron out the rest of the details. Trump said these discussions could take “a couple of days,” and he has continued to pressure both sides to wrap negotiations up quickly.
The talks are being held at the Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. Israel’s negotiation team is being led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, while the Hamas delegation will be led by chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. International mediators from the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey are also expected to be present.
Trump has sent U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former senior advisor, to participate in the talks. Kushner, who served in a more formal and public-facing role in the first Trump administration but continues to hold sway in an unofficial capacity, helped craft the 20-point peace plan with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Though Trump’s plan for Gaza is quite broad and delves into many future issues, the talks in Egypt are expected to begin by focusing on an initial phase of a cease-fire, including a hostage exchange and the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops.
What We Don’t Know
The biggest unknown is whether the negotiations in Egypt, which began on the eve of the second anniversary of the start of the war (Oct. 7), will result in a deal.
International mediators have tried and failed for months to reach a new agreement after a two-month cease-fire collapsed in March and Israel resumed airstrikes. Though both Israel and Hamas have blamed the other for the impasse, the reality is that both sides have played a role in blocking progress on a new truce and hostage-exchange agreement.
But there is significant momentum surrounding these talks compared to past negotiations, with Trump raising pressure on both parties to wrap up the war. Still, neither side appears eager to make the first move.
Even though Dermer was tapped to lead Israel’s delegation, he has apparently not yet traveled to Egypt and reportedly will not go until a “later stage.” This could indicate that Israel wants to see whether there are initial breakthroughs before sending Dermer in.
Israel has also signaled that it’s ready to ramp up the war if the hostages are not released. “If Hamas refuses to release the hostages, the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will again increase the intensity of fire until Hamas is defeated and all the hostages are released,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday.
That said, the U.S. is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for a deal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said that this is “the closest we’ve come to getting all of the hostages released.”
But there are many details to work out, including precisely how the hostages will be returned. Rubio on Sunday conceded that the logistics of this are difficult, particularly as Gaza is a war zone that’s been devastated by two years of fighting. It’s unclear if Hamas even knows where all of the hostages, whether alive or dead, currently are. Hamas has said that some bodies of hostages might be buried under rubble.
There are also likely to be disagreements over the Israeli withdrawal line in Gaza, as well as the timeline for the pullout. So far, only vague details have been offered on what an Israeli withdrawal will look like.
Trump on Saturday shared a post on Truth Social with a map displaying the initial withdrawal line Israel has agreed to, which he said has been shared with Hamas. He said that after a cease-fire begins and a hostage and prisoner exchange takes place, the conditions for the next phase of the withdrawal will be created.
Hamas wants Israeli troops out of Gaza, but Netanyahu has signaled that a full withdrawal is not up for discussion—making this among the many issues that could throw cold water on the negotiation process.
We also don’t know whether Hamas will sign off on an agreement that requires it to disarm and play no role in Gaza’s future governance. Hamas did not address laying down its arms in its Friday statement on Trump’s plan. Though Hamas said it was willing to hand over power to a technocratic body, it also did not rule out playing a role in Gaza’s postwar government.
If Hamas is unwilling to compromise on these issues, it could upend negotiations and derail Trump’s plan. Israel and the United States have consistently maintained that Hamas cannot retain power in any form and must be removed as a threat.
Trump over the weekend conceded there are likely to be “some changes” to the plan in the course of negotiations, but he also said that Hamas will face “obliteration” if it doesn’t give up power.
The question of Palestinian statehood also remains up in the air. Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, characterizing it as a danger to Israel. But the Trump plan, in theory, leaves the door open for a two-state solution. The negotiations in Egypt are focused on addressing a hostage exchange and cease-fire first, but issues like this are indicative of the major tensions enveloping the discussions—with the potential to throw a wrench in the entire process.
It’s also unclear what a deal will mean for Netanyahu’s political future. Netanyahu leads a flimsy coalition government, and some far-right members have repeatedly threatened to leave the government if he moves forward with a plan to end the war. But opposition leader Yair Lapid has said that he’s offered to provide Netanyahu with the necessary political support to see this plan through if the prime minister agrees to set a date for elections. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is also on trial over corruption charges.
For over a year, Netanyahu has been dogged by allegations of continuing the war in Gaza for personal reasons and his political survival. If he does not move forward with Trump’s plan, Netanyahu could face significant public backlash in Israel—polling shows a majority of Israelis want the war over and the hostages home.
The war in Gaza has also made Netanyahu an international pariah. There’s an International Criminal Court warrant out for Netanyahu’s arrest for alleged war crimes in Gaza. Under his leadership, Israel has become increasingly isolated from the global community as it’s faced worldwide criticism over its handling of the war—including widespread accusations of genocide. While the United States remains a close ally of Israel, Trump has clearly lost patience with Netanyahu. Polling shows that Americans increasingly have negative views of Israel as the war in Gaza continues.
Netanyahu is facing pressure from all sides—and is backed into a corner. But he’s also the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history and a proven political survivor. Still, it remains an open question whether his prime ministership and Trump’s peace plan can both survive.
