by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2025 09:11:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations and June and July payrolls were revised down by 21,000 combined. A weak report. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.3%.
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in August to 83.7% from 83.4% in July.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.4% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% YoY in August, down from 3.9% YoY in July.
From the BLS report:
“The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in
August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time
because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.75 million from 4.68 million in July. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.1% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.93 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.83 million the previous month.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
The recent streak of positive job reports ended in May (Payrolls were negative in June). The recent streak finished in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2020 | 113 |
| 2 | 2025 | 531 |
| 3 | 1990 | 48 |
| 4 | 2007 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Recent Streak Ended in May | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations and June and July payrolls were revised down by 21,000 combined. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%.
This was a weak employment report.
