Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):
Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index (green), all standardized for 2021M01-2025M02 period. July sentiment is preliminary; August news sentiment through August 24. U.Michigan via FRED, Conference Board, SF Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.
While Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are about 1 or 1.5 standard deviations above the April trough, they’re both about 1.5 standard deviations below December/November peaks.
Expectations continue to decline. Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of recession is climbing back to April levels.
Source: Conference Boardaccessed 8/262025.
