No significant development is expected across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf through next week, at least.
The entire tropical belt is covered with dry air, including surges of Saharan dust. As a result, disturbances that move off Africa are unable to develop, even when they reach ocean waters that are warm enough to support them. In addition, strong upper-level winds are blowing across the Caribbean, prohibiting any development there.
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Going forward, a weak front will create a band of disturbed weather from the northern Gulf, across Florida, and offshore of the Southeast coast around the end of next week. And then in the long range, computer forecasts show another weak front moving south the following week.
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As we saw with Chantal, sometimes these dying fronts can trigger an organized storm. There is a little noise about this possibility in the long-range computer forecast models, but the odds are very low and not worth thinking much about.
Most likely, it just means another period of extra rainy summertime weather across Florida and the surrounding areas beginning next week.
For now, the July tropical lull continues.
