A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.
Global central banks bought a net 20t in Maybased on reported data, close to but still below the 12-month average of 27t. Fresh tensions in the Middle East may have reinforced the strategic appeal of gold for central banks looking to safeguard reserves against geopolitical shocks.
That being said, the increase in the share of total reserves in the form of gold in recent years (documented in this post) has been driven more by gold price increases rather than physical holdings.
Figure 1: Value of central bank gold reserves at market prices, in millions of USD (blue, left log scale), and quantity in tonnes (tan, right log scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: IFS via World Gold Council, World Gold Council, and NBER.
It’ll be of interest to see how gold holdings — vs. dollar holdings — change in 2025Q1.
While we don’t have US dollar reserves, we have TIC estimates foreign holdings of Treasuries by foreigners (official and private), and those do not seem to have fallen as of April. So, too early to say the dollar is on the way out.
