The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the possible development of an area of low pressure off the Southeast coast that is expected to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to Florida over the Fourth of July holiday. FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera breaks down the forecast for July 1, 2025.
TAMPA, Fla. – The Fourth of July holiday is quickly approaching, but millions of people in Florida and the Southeast are keeping a close eye on potential tropical development that could halt outdoor and beach plans across the region.
Regardless of tropical development, Florida is expected to see flooding rain and thunderstorms through at least the end of the upcoming weekend.
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeastern U.S. coast later this week, and an area of low pressure could then possibly develop by the weekend over the Atlantic waters, over Florida or the eastern Gulf.
After that, the NHC said some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur as the system slowly moves over the area. The NHC is giving the system a low chance of developing over the next week.
Florida’s Fourth of July holiday outdoor, beach plans in jeopardy
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As a stalling cold front weakens over Florida in the coming days, torrential rain and thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the upcoming weekend.
Several inches of rain could fall from the Cedar Key area southward through Sarasota, as well as in the Orlando area.
Heavy rain is also likely to have an impact on holiday weekend plans on the Atlantic coast of Florida, from around the Daytona Beach area through Cocoa Beach and Melbourne on the Space Coast and into cities like West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.
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Flood concerns are also on the rise as the state braces for tropical downpours.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed a large portion of Florida in a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat on Thursday. However, a Level 2 threat was highlighted along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Perry in the Big Bend to the Tampa, St. Petersburg and Sarasota areas.
