Various observers have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this indicator cast into doubt prospects for rapid growth.
Figure 1: Growth rate q/q annualized for final sales to private domestic purchasers (dark red, left scale), GDPNow (red square, left scale), Goldman Sachs (green x, left scale); level of annualized final sales to private domestic purchasers (black, right log scale), GDPNow (blue square, right log scale), Goldman Sachs (inverted green triangle, right log scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (6/27), Goldman Sachs (6/27), and author’s calculations.
If Goldman Sachs turns out to be correct, then momentum will have stalled out.
