A strong ridge of high pressure has settled across the East, bringing record-breaking heat through the first half of this week. Meanwhile, storms tracking around the periphery of this ridge or ring of fire will pose risk of flash flooding and severe weather from the Plains into the Midwest.
A “ring of fire” weather pattern is intensifying storm threats across the Plains and Midwest, bringing with it a significant increase in tropical moisture that elevates the risk of widespread flooding.
Strong storms developed Monday from parts of the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes. This was along a cold front stretching from Wisconsin down toward western Kansas, with very warm and humid air sitting just ahead of it, the FOX Forecast Center said.
This combination of heat, moisture and a weak disturbance aloft will continue to help trigger scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday. This will most likely be across the northern portion of the large ridge of high pressure sitting across the East.
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A Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk exists Tuesday for portions of the Plains and Rockies as another disturbance rides along the northern periphery of the ridge. This will pose mainly a large hail (larger than 2 inches) threat, along with damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also possible, especially in Wyoming, South Dakota and parts of Colorado.
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Scattered storms will also be possible across the central Plains into the Great Lakes and northern New England.
The FOX Forecast Center said storms will likely form in clusters, which could merge quickly and enhance the wind threat as they move east. Farther south, in the Tennessee Valley and mid-South, scattered storms are also expected but with a lower chance of becoming severe. A few isolated storms may also pop up along the Appalachians under the influence of high pressure and intense daytime heating.
Flash flood risk increases Tuesday for Midwest
Repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible into early next week for millions of people in the Upper Midwest. Several inches of rain could fall, raising the risk of flash flooding.
A widespread 3-5 inches of rain is likely for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. For this reason, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has highlighted these areas in its excessive rainfall outlook each day through Thursday. Currently, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk is in place for those days.
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Under the ridge of high pressure, very little to no rainfall is expected for the next few days, the FOX Forecast Center said. This pattern will begin to break down by mid- to late-week as the ridge weakens and shifts east.
This breakdown in the pattern will also reintroduce a northeasterly flow across portions of the Southeast. This will increase the storm risk for areas along the East Coast by Wednesday afternoon.
