From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months:
Figure 1: Mean probability of recession within the next 12 months, WSJ March survey, % (blue square). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. WSJ survey, NBER.
Median probability is 30% (Hollenhurst, Clark/Citigroup). The highest probability is 85%, lowest is 1% (unless it’s a typo…).
It’s important to note that these economists are conditioning on all sorts of things (price of oil, duration of shock). From the WSJ:
Asked how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the recession probability above 50%, economists gave a range of responses: from $90 a barrel to $200, with an average of $138. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. U.S. oil futures closed at $96.32 a barrel Wednesday, compared with a February average of about $65.
Betting markets (Polymarkets), for either NBER declaration or BEA advance for 2026Q4, at 34%. From Kalshi, 2 consecutive quarters negative growth in 2026, is at 35%.
Source: Kalshiaccessed 3/19/2026, 2:30pm CT.
