As of yesterday, open sources indicate:
Source: LIPaccessed 3/17/2026.
The composition and capabilities of the ARG are described here. That being said, the prediction markets are indicating an ever lower probability of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to general traffic (although Iranian sanctioned ships can enter and exit at the moment).
Source: Polymarketaccessed 3/17, 4pm.
The current probability estimate is 25%, versus 79% a week ago. The likely irrelevance of the ARG redeployment for re-opening the Strait is explained in this short primer.
NavalNews reports:
The transfer of the the Tripoli ARG marks the most major assets that have been moved out of INDOPACOM’s inventory thus far, as the Tripoli had been assigned to 7th Fleet’s area of responsibility as a part of the U.S. military’s contingent in Japan. It has been noted that primarily air-defense assets had been previously commandeered from INDOPACOM, with both THAAD and Patriot battery components (primarily Transport Erector Launchers and missiles) being reportedly moved to the Middle East from Korea.
So, it’s not just amphibious attack resources being moved, air defense assets are also being reallocated. Given the importance deterring Chinese expansionism, this seems foolhardy given the lack of imminent threat from Iran. But that’s just me.
