Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d):
Figure 1: Implied nonfarm payroll (NFP) employmennt preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink),GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q4 2nd release,S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1/22/2026 release), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (green), real retail sales, CPI deflated (black), freight services indexes (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, ADP,via FRED, Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2]Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q4 2nd release, and author’s calculations.
