What’s the betting on closure by March 31? According to Polymarketit’s 82% right now…
Source: Polymarket5 March 2026, 9pm CT.
The terms of the contract are:
Per the rules, this market requires Iran to halt or severely restrict international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. “Severely restrict” will be defined as a 80% or greater decrease in the 7 day moving average of commercial vessel transits (both cargo and tanker ships) on a given date when compared to the seven-day moving average 30 days prior, as reported by the IMF’s PortWatch service (see: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730), with the decrease being directly caused by actions taken by the Iranian regime. A consensus of credible reporting or government sources confirming that Iran has halted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will also qualify.
I don’t have up-to-date data, but the IMF’s Portwatch system provides data through March 1:
Source: IMF PortWatchaccessed 5 March 2026.
20% of oil exports go through the Strait; complete closure results in a spike in Brent to $108, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Here’s the current picture (red arrows are tankers):
Source: MarineTraffic.comaccessed 5 March 2026, 10pm CT.
