In his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump said his tariffs are “saving our country.”
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, delivering the Democratic response, said the opposite.
“Since this president took office last year, his reckless trade policies have forced American families to pay more than $1,700 each in tariff costs,” Spanberger said Feb. 24.
We’ve fact-checked other Democrats’ estimates about how much Trump’s tariffs are costing American families. Spanberger’s $1,700 figure is roughly in line with multiple estimates by groups that study the tariffs’ effect. These groups, which represent diverse political ideologies, used different metrics to calculate the tariffs’ cost to American households.
The Supreme Court recently ruled that Trump cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy tariffs on his own, as he had been doing. Trump reinstated a global 15% tariff after the decision, using other laws.
When contacted for comment, Spanberger’s office cited a study from the Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, estimating that the average household has paid about $1,745 in tariff costs from February 2025 to January.
Economists say tariff impacts are mostly passed on to consumers, similar to taxes. But because consumers don’t spend as much on imports, tariffs don’t affect all purchases equally.
Other groups provided estimates:
The Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, estimated that, in 2025, Trump tariffs contributed to an average tax increase of $1,000 per household.
The Yale Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center, estimated in November and January an average income loss of about $1,700, based on consumer prices. Using another measure based on spending relative to a household’s income, the group estimated the median cost at $1,400 per household.
The National Taxpayers Union, a center-right advocacy organization, estimated in August 2025 that Trump’s tariffs would cost households an average of $2,048 each year if left in place.
These estimates measured the impact of tariffs that were in place before the Supreme Court struck them down.
Some groups measured how much tariffs would cost families after Trump tweaked his tariffs following the Supreme Court ruling. The Tax Foundation predicted that new tariffs on items such as lumber, steel and cars will increase taxes by $400 per household in 2026. Other tariffs, which are temporary and up to 15% on imported goods, could also add another $200 to $600 in taxes, for a total of $600 to $1,000 in tax increases in 2026.
The Yale Budget Lab made two estimates after the Supreme Court ruling. The first, based on consumer price increases, found that a household would lose $800 on average in the short run if certain tariffs expired, or $1,300 if those temporary tariffs are extended.
The second measured how much families spend in relation to their income. It calculated that average annual household costs from tariffs range from around $400 to $1,800, and would increase to around $700 to $3,000, if some tariffs were extended.
Our ruling
Spanberger said Trump’s tariff policies “have forced American families to pay more than $1,700 each in tariff costs.”
Spanberger referred to a study that showed households have paid an average of $1,745 in tariff costs from February 2025 to January.
Three other groups came up with four estimates. Three of their estimates came in roughly the same or within $350 of Spanberger’s estimate. The fourth was lower than Spanberger’s figure.
The statement is accurate but needs additional information. We rate it Mostly True.
