So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated.
Figure 1: EPU-trade (Baker-Bloom-Davis) (blue, left scale); Trade Policy Uncertainty (Caldara et al.) (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, TPU Index.
Even if we are stuck with Section 122 tariffs for a 150 days, it’ll still be an open question whether Trump will try to reimplement, and if he does, will this be challenged in court. There’s also the question of reimbursements to work its way through the process. So… no respite there. However, Trump’s ability to thuggishly threaten country-by-country is constrained somewhat by the uniform tariff permitted by Section 122.
