Households say yes (preliminary), while Wall Street economists says no:
Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), U.Michigan February survey mean (prel.) (light blue square), WSJ January survey mean (red triangle), all in %. Source: BLS, U.Michigan, WSJ, and author’s calculations.
While consumer inflation expectations (from the U.Michigan survey) are typically significantly biased upward, over 2025, the mean error is -0.2%, and is not statistically significantly different from zero.
