From NYT today “Former Farming Leaders Warn U.S. Agriculture Could Face ‘Widespread Collapse’”:
While there are many reasons for increasing farm bankruptcies and decreasing profits“it is clear that the current administration’s actions, along with congressional inaction, have increased costs for farm inputs, disrupted overseas and domestic markets, denied agriculture its reliable labor pool, and defunded critical ag research and staffing,” the letter warned.
Here are some indicators describing the dire straits the ag sector is in, deteriorating relative to the situation I outlined back in October (EconoFact). First, farmer sentiment collapses, from 136 in December to 116 in January.
Source: Purdue & CME.
From the report:
Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month.
Both current conditions and expectations declined:
Source: Purdue & CME.
From the report:
One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance.
Given this outlook, it’s not surprising that the outlook for capital investment is poor. Only 4% of respondents expected to increase farm machinery spending over the next 12 months.
The USDA’s forecast for 2026 comes out in a couple days (see here for September release); here’s one guess for (nominal) net farm income in 2026:
Source: B.Knorr, FarmProgress.
The NYT article notes that retaliation has diminished agricultural exports. Here’s a graphical depiction:
Figure 1: Exports of food, feed and beverages, mn.Ch.2017$ per month, s.a. (blue, log scale). Source: BEA.
