by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2026 11:12:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Excerpt:
It has almost 20 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!
In the October Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.7% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.1% above the bubble peak.
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People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $448,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important – this shows “real” prices.br />
The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
…The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).
In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.0% below the recent peak in 2022.
Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index increased in October. This was the first increase in the real National index has in 10 months.
It has now been 41 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)
There is much more in the article!
