With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser]recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl preliminary benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from ADP plus estimates for government employment (lilac), experimental civilian employment using smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q3 initial release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/2/2025 release), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, smoothed population controls and 3 month centered moving average (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), freight services index (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2]Federal Reserve, BTS via FRED, BEA 2025Q3 initial release, and author’s calculations.
Note the vertical axes are the same in the two graphs; hence, the two graphs are comparable. Hence, GDO is only 1.6% above 2025Q1 levels, while GDP is 2.0%.
The graphs also highlight the divergence through Q3 of employment indicators (from CES and CPS) from output indicators (such as GDP and GDO).
