Project Lead for HRRR-CAST, Dr. Isidora Jankov, joins FOX Weather to explain how the NOAA uses AI for regional forecasting and much more.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is launching three new AI-driven global weather prediction models designed to significantly advance forecast speed, efficiency and accuracy.
These new forecasting models, called the Artificial Intelligence Global Forecast System (AIGFS), the Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System (AIGEFS) and the Hyrbrid-GEFS (HGEFS), were introduced on Wednesday.
“The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources,” NOAA said in a news release.
This AIGFS forecast in the form of a map, for December 10, 2025, shows the heavy precipitation from an atmospheric river hitting the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
(NOAA National Weather Service / NOAA)
NOAA said the AIGFS implements AI to deliver improved weather forecasts more quickly and efficiently than the traditional GFS forecast model.
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The AIGEFS is an AI-based ensemble system that provides a range of possible forecast outcomes to meteorologists and decision-makers, NOAA said.
The agency said early results from the AIGEFS show improved performance over the traditional GEFS by extending forecast skill by an additional 18 to 24 hours.
NOAA said the HGEFS is a hybrid “grand ensemble” that combines the AIGEFS and NOAA’s GEFS, forming a “first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center.” Initial testing shows the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the AI-only AIGEFS and the physics-only GEFS.
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“NOAA’s strategic application of AI is a significant leap forward in American weather model innovation,” NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said. “These AI models reflect a new paradigm for NOAA in providing improved accuracy for large-scale weather and tropical tracks, and faster delivery of forecast products to meteorologists and the public at a lower cost through drastically reduced computational expenses.”
The agency said this initial suite of AI models is part of Project EAGLE, a joint initiative between NOAA’s National Weather Service, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Labs, the Environmental Modeling Center in NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center.
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“Using Project EAGLE and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, NOAA scientists continue to work with members of academia and private industry on more advancements in forecasting technology,” Jacobs said.
To learn more about the new AI-based forecasting models, visit NOAA’s website here.
