As the Russian war in Ukraine enters its fourth winter, proposals for ending the conflict are multiplying in Geneva, where talks among Ukraine, the US and European states are focusing on the recently discussed plan negotiated by Washington with Russia.
Beyond the battlefield, another front has opened – one defined by institutions, treaties, and long-term commitments. Among the ideas gaining traction is that Ukraine’s membership of the European Union could itself serve as a key security guarantee in any future peace settlement.
But can a country join the EU while significant portions of its internationally recognised territory remain under foreign occupation? For more than three years, Ukraine has officially been a candidate for EU membership. Yet the actual accession negotiations are still stalled, with the first cluster blocked by Budapest’s position.
Iana Okhrimenko, senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy, notes that the Ukrainian government does not tie EU accession to full de-occupation.
“The political situation in the EU and the situation on the battlefield are too volatile for precise planning,” and, overall, responsible negotiators “are trying to stay ready for accession as soon as a window of opportunity opens,” she says.
And while negotiations with Russia are actively discussed in the media, most Ukrainians are not willing to make territorial concessions. According to an October 2025 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 54% of respondents are categorically against any territorial concessions, while 38% are ready to accept some territorial losses. As Okhrimenko emphasises, a dilemma between joining the EU and maintaining full territorial integrity
“does not exist in public discourse at the moment.”
Source: eunews
More news from CES experts can be found via the link.
