Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war. The special topic of the November review is: «How this year’s harvest will affect Ukraine’s economy?».
All previous reviews can be found under the link.
Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in November:
- Monetary sector: Inflation fell to 10.9%, driven by disinflationary trend. Food inflation eases, vegetable prices deflate. At the same time, fundamental price pressures persist, inflation expectations above 10%. NBU by its October decision decided to delay the interest rate cut cycle in face of pro-inflation risks and uncertainty related to energy and budget deficits.
- International trade: Trade deficit grows, driven by increased good imports (+31.8% y-o-y in September) and decreased services imports (-5% y-o-y). Goods imports grow due to persistent demand for war-related equipment and energy. Exports remain fragile, under war-related pressure.
- Sectoral analysis: The energy situation deteriorated further and led to essential electricity import in October-November. However, business and consumer expectation slightly improved in October amid steady consumer demand and
- Fiscal sector: Revenues in October are the lowest in four months. The state budget received UAH 142 bn of taxes, 3% less than in September. Expenses decreased by 13% in September mostly due to decrease in war expenditures.
- Special topic: This year’s harvest is expected to be good, with grains and legumes production estimated at around 60 mt. However, the agricultural sector has faced several challenges in recent years: losses and destruction during the full-scale war as well as reduced yields due to droughts. Ukraine’s accession to the EU will require significant effort to align with European standards and rules. However, it will also open up free access to the large EU market and funds.
See our report below for further details.
Panelists:
- Natalia KolesnichenkoSenior Economist at CES;
- Tetiana Adamenko, Head of the Department of Agrometeorology, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
- Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine.
- Alex LissitsaChairman of the Board of Directors of IMC and President of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB).
- Iana Okhrimenko, Senior Economist at CES.
- Oleksii Pavlenko, Advisor to the CEO of Nibulon.
Moderator: Maria RepkoDeputy Executive Director, Centre for Economic Strategy.
This event has been funded by UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
