Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at a U.S.– and Russian-drafted peace deal for Ukraine, China’s diplomatic rift with Japanand alleged Russian sabotage in Poland and the United Kingdom.
New Conditions
Efforts to revive peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war appear to be gaining momentumas the Trump administration floats a new deal to permanently halt the fighting. Inspired by the U.S.-drafted Gaza cease-fire agreement, the White House’s 28-point framework reportedly aims to address peace in Ukraine, provide security guarantees, ensure European safety, and improve the future of U.S. relations with both Kyiv and Moscow.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at a U.S.– and Russian-drafted peace deal for Ukraine, China’s diplomatic rift with Japanand alleged Russian sabotage in Poland and the United Kingdom.
New Conditions
Efforts to revive peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war appear to be gaining momentumas the Trump administration floats a new deal to permanently halt the fighting. Inspired by the U.S.-drafted Gaza cease-fire agreement, the White House’s 28-point framework reportedly aims to address peace in Ukraine, provide security guarantees, ensure European safety, and improve the future of U.S. relations with both Kyiv and Moscow.
According to Axiosthe United States and Russia have been secretly working together on this new plan, and the White House is optimistic that it could be agreed to in the near future—possibly as soon as this week. However, the plan includes several elements that have long been seen as nonstarters for Ukraine, which means such optimism may be misplaced.
Under the proposal, Russia would be granted de facto control of Ukraine’s Donbas region despite Ukraine still holding around 14.5 percent of that territory. The area that Kyiv withdraws from would be considered a demilitarized zone, meaning Russia could not position troops there. The current lines of control in the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would largely be frozen in place, with Russia returning some land subject to negotiations. And while Ukraine would not be required to recognize Moscow’s claimed territory, the United States and other countries would accept that Crimea and the Donbas are lawfully part of Russia.
In exchange, Washington would provide security guarantees for Ukraine and the rest of Europe to ward against future Russian aggression. Kyiv may also be forced to give up some weapons and cut the size of its armed forces, per Reuters. It is unclear if the deal paves a pathway for Ukraine to eventually join the European Union or NATO, a condition that Moscow vehemently rejects.
If such a deal is agreed to, it would mark a major setback for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has repeatedly denounced any proposal that includes the loss of Ukrainian territory and who is currently suffering his own debilitating corruption scandal at home.
“We are preparing to reinvigorate negotiations, and we have developed solutions that we will propose to our partners,” Zelensky wrote on X on Tuesday. “Doing everything possible to bring the end of the war closer is Ukraine’s top priority.”
On Wednesday, Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara to discuss strategies to end the war. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was supposed to meet Zelensky there, but his trip was postponed. Instead, a U.S. military delegation led by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll traveled to Kyiv on Wednesday, highlighting how quickly the Trump administration wants to move on this new plan.
In-person talks between Kyiv and Moscow have failed to materialize since a meeting in Istanbul in July ended with little progress. And last month, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest; although no reason was given at the time, reports suggested that the meeting was called off due to Moscow’s unwillingness to budge from its maximalist demands.
Since then, the Kremlin has continued its deadly campaign in Ukraine. In recent months, Russian troops have moved closer to capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk. Moscow has ordered massive airstrikes on critical Ukrainian energy and transportation infrastructure, forcing emergency power cuts amid frigid temperatures. And Russia has launched several missile and drone strikes on civilian targets, including an overnight operation on Wednesday that killed at least 25 people and injured around 80 others in the Ukrainian city of Ternopil.
“Russia continues to be open to the negotiation process,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
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Another diplomatic fissure. China suspended all Japanese seafood imports on Wednesday, adding a new layer of contention to the two countries’ escalating diplomatic rift. Beijing claimed that the blanket ban was due to Tokyo’s import procedures not being sufficient. However, just months ago, China partially eased restrictions on Japanese seafood that had initially been imposed in 2023 over the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima power plant.
China’s spat with Japan began earlier this month, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could threaten Tokyo and trigger a military response. The comment spurred both countries to summon each other’s ambassadors, prompted Japan to warn its citizens in China to take extra safety precautions, forced hundreds of thousands of Chinese travelers to cancel their flights to Japan, caused Beijing to launch new military patrols around nearby disputed islands, and even led to two Japanese films being pulled from Chinese box offices.
“China-Japan clashes have a habit of spiraling out of control, with consequences for ordinary people,” FP’s James Palmer wrote in this week’s China Brief. “But China and Japan have extensive trade ties, and neither can afford another blow to their already struggling economies.”
Alleged Russian sabotage. Polish authorities announced on Wednesday that Warsaw will close the last Russian consulate in its territory and deploy 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure after accusing Moscow of targeting a vital railway that connects Poland to the Ukrainian border. “It was not only an act of sabotage but also an act of state terrorism,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told lawmakers. Warsaw has previously closed the Russian consulates in Krakow and Poznan over similar attacks.
According to Polish intelligence, two Ukrainians collaborating with the Kremlin were responsible for last Sunday’s explosion, which damaged the Warsaw-Lublin line that Poland has used to deliver aid to Ukraine. Moscow has denied involvement and said it would limit Poland’s diplomatic and consular presence in Russia in response.
Meanwhile, British Defense Secretary John Healey accused a Russian spy ship on Wednesday of entering British waters and shining lasers at military pilots. London is facing a “new era of threat” from hostile nations, Healey said, adding that the Yantar surveillance ship has crossed in and out of the country’s exclusive economic zone several times in recent weeks. According to Healey, the Russian vessel is designed to gather intelligence and map undersea cables.
Seized ship is freed. Iran released a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker from its custody on Wednesday, days after seizing the vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The Talara was carrying high-sulfur gasoil from the United Arab Emirates to Singapore when it was intercepted last Friday. This was Tehran’s first interdiction in the strategic waterway in months.
According to Cyprus-based Columbia Shipmanagementall 21 crew members “are safe and in good spirits,” and the vessel is expected to resume normal operations. Iranian officials said Talara was detained on suspected cargo violations, specifically that it was allegedly smuggling around 30,000 tons of Iranian petrochemical products. However, no formal charges were filed against the ship.
Talara’s seizure raised concerns about the safety of commercial shipping in the narrow Strait of Hormuz; 20 percent of all global oil transports travel through the critical waterway, which feeds into the Persian Gulf. Tehran has previously threatened to close off the strait in retaliation for or to deter actions by its adversaries, but it has never followed through on these threats.
Odds and Ends
If you’d just had a spare $236.4 million lying around, you could have been the owner of Austrian artist Gustav Klimt’s “Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer.” The colorful piece set the record on Tuesday for the second-most expensive painting ever sold at auction, behind Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi,” worth $450.3 million. Klimt’s portrait was initially estimated at $150 million, but its price skyrocketed after just 19 minutes of bidding—astounding art experts and putting a dent in one lucky buyer’s wallet.
